Friday, November 13, 2009

No Surprise from FOMC, Stocks Higher, Dollar Lower


Fed left rates unchanged at 0-0.25% as widely expected. The wordings that rates will be kept at exceptionally low level for an "extended period" of time was practically unchanged. After all, there was nothing special from the FOMC statement. Markets struggled to find directional initially after the release but dollar bears won the battle as markets digested the statement. The greenback is sharply lower against European majors as well as commodity currencies while stocks managed to climb again after some retreats.

Intraday bias in the dollar index remains on the downside for the moment and fall from 76.82 might still extend further even though 61.8% retracement of 74.94 to 76.82 at 75.65 is already met. Persistent strength in Gold and crude oil would likely continue to pressure the greenback in general. Nevertheless, we'd continue to expect strong support above 74.94 low to conclude the pull back from 76.82 in the dollar index. That could be translated into a retest of recent high in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD though.

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